The science of emotional bids: why 86% matters

Of all the research on what makes relationships work, one finding stands above the rest. It's not about communication styles or personality compatibility. It's about what happens in the smallest moments.

You're sitting on the couch reading. Your partner glances out the window and says, "Wow, look at that sunset." What do you do?

This moment -- so small it barely registers -- is what relationship researcher John Gottman calls an "emotional bid." And how you respond to it, multiplied across thousands of such moments, is the single strongest predictor of whether your relationship will thrive or fail.

What is an emotional bid?

A bid is any attempt by one person to connect with another. It's a request for attention, affection, humor, support, or simply acknowledgment. Bids come in an enormous range of forms, and most of them don't look like what we'd typically call "emotional."

Some bids are obvious:

• "I had a terrible day at work."
• "Can we talk about something that's been bothering me?"
• "I love you."

But most bids are subtle, almost invisible:

• "Look at this funny thing I found online." (Bid for shared humor)
• "Did you hear about [news event]?" (Bid for conversation)
• A sigh from the other room. (Bid for attention)
• Reaching for your hand while walking. (Bid for physical connection)
• "What do you think of this shirt?" (Bid for validation)
• Telling a story about their day. (Bid for interest)

Gottman's research found that in typical couples, these bids happen constantly -- often dozens of times per day. Most are so mundane they barely seem worth noticing. But that's precisely what makes them so important.

Gottman, J. M., & DeClaire, J. (2001). The Relationship Cure. Harmony Books.

The landmark study: 86% vs. 33%

In one of Gottman's most cited studies, newlywed couples were observed in his research lab (often called the "Love Lab") at the University of Washington. Researchers tracked every bid for connection and how each partner responded. Then they followed up with the couples six years later.

The results were striking. Couples who were still together and happy had turned toward each other's bids 86% of the time during the original observation. Couples who had since divorced? Just 33%.

Gottman, J. M., & Silver, N. (1999). The Seven Principles for Making Marriage Work. Harmony Books.

Let that sink in. The difference between relationships that lasted and relationships that didn't wasn't 86% vs. 85%. It was 86% vs. 33%. The gap is enormous. And the measure is so simple: when your person reaches out, in any way, how often do you reach back?

The three responses

Gottman identified three ways people respond to bids. Understanding all three is essential because two of them feel very different but produce the same result.

Turning toward means acknowledging the bid and engaging with it. Your partner says "look at that sunset" and you look up, walk to the window, say "wow, that's gorgeous." You've accepted the bid. The connection is reinforced.

Turning toward doesn't require enthusiasm. Even a simple "mm, yeah" while glancing up from your book counts. The bar is low. What matters is that you acknowledged the bid at all.

Turning away means ignoring the bid, usually not on purpose. Your partner says "look at that sunset" and you keep scrolling your phone without responding. You didn't hear them, or you heard them but were absorbed in something else. There's no hostility here -- just absence.

This is the most common negative response, and in some ways the most damaging, because it's so easy to do without realizing it. The bidder is left feeling invisible. If it happens once, it's nothing. If it becomes a pattern, the bidder gradually stops reaching out. The relationship cools from the inside.

Turning against means responding to the bid with irritation or hostility. "Can you stop interrupting me? I'm trying to read." The bid isn't just missed -- it's punished. The bidder learns that reaching out is risky, and they start to self-protect by withdrawing.

Turning against is less common than turning away, but more immediately destructive. It doesn't just fail to build connection; it actively tears it down.

Why this predicts more than anything else

Researchers have studied dozens of factors that might predict relationship success: personality compatibility, conflict resolution style, shared values, sexual satisfaction, income, education, age gap. All of these matter to some degree. But the bid-response ratio outperforms them all.

Why? Because bids are the elementary particles of relationships. They're the smallest unit of connection, and they happen constantly. Every other relationship behavior -- how you fight, how you celebrate, how you repair after hurt -- is built on top of this foundation. If the bid-response pattern is healthy, the relationship has a base of trust and warmth that makes everything else easier. If it's not, even good communication techniques feel hollow.

"It's not the big things that define a relationship. It's the small moments of turning toward each other, day after day after day."

Gottman, J. M., & Silver, N. (2012). What Makes Love Last? Simon & Schuster.

The bids you're probably missing

The most common reason people miss bids isn't that they don't care. It's that they don't recognize the bid for what it is. We expect emotional needs to come in clearly labeled packages -- "I need support right now" -- but they rarely do.

Here are some bids that are easy to miss:

The story that seems pointless. Your partner tells you about something that happened at work that doesn't really have a punchline. They're not asking you to solve a problem. The bid is for interest -- they want to share their inner world with you, and they want you to care enough to listen.

The complaint that sounds like nagging. "You left the dishes out again" might sound like criticism, but it's often a bid underneath: "I want to feel like we're a team. I want to feel like you notice." Responding to the bid under the complaint changes the entire dynamic.

The joke that falls flat. When someone makes a joke and it doesn't land, there's a small vulnerable moment. Laughing anyway, or at least smiling and engaging, turns toward the bid. Silence or a blank stare turns away.

The physical proximity. When someone sits next to you instead of across the room, or moves closer while you're cooking, that's a bid for physical closeness. It doesn't require a response in words -- just being present and welcoming the proximity.

How to practice turning toward

The good news about bids is that improvement is straightforward. You don't need to learn a complex communication framework. You need to do two things: notice more bids, and respond to the ones you notice.

Start by observing. For one day, try to notice every bid someone close to you makes. Don't try to change your behavior yet -- just count them. Most people are surprised by how many they find. You might count 20 or 30 in a single evening.

Lower your bar for response. Turning toward doesn't mean dropping everything. It means acknowledging. A glance, a nod, a "hmm, tell me more," a brief touch on the shoulder. The bid is asking "are you there?" and the answer just needs to be "yes."

Put down the phone. This is the single most impactful change most people can make. Our devices are bid-blocking machines. Every moment spent staring at a screen is a moment where bids from the people physically present are likely to be missed. You don't have to abandon your phone. But when someone you love is in the room, consider what you might be missing.

Repair when you miss one. You'll miss bids. Everyone does. What matters is that you notice when it happens and circle back. "Hey, you said something earlier about your day and I wasn't really listening. Tell me again?" That repair attempt is itself a bid -- and a powerful one.

Beyond romantic relationships

Gottman's research focused primarily on couples, but the bid framework applies to every close relationship. Your child showing you a drawing is a bid. Your friend texting you an article is a bid. Your parent calling to tell you about the weather is a bid.

In each case, the dynamic is the same: someone is reaching out for connection, and your response either strengthens or weakens the bond. The 86% principle doesn't require perfection. It just requires that, most of the time, when someone you love reaches toward you, you reach back.

That's it. That's the whole thing. The research says it's the most important thing you can do for any relationship, and it costs nothing but a moment of attention.